Bigger Than
They Are

What the parties are made of, what Americans think they are made of — and what the 47 of us guessed.

Ahler & Sood, JOP 2018ANES 2024Cervas Election Study 2026

Two things to do with this.

Read the full argument

Every number on these slides, with its source, plus the theory, the vocabulary, and questions for discussion.

parties-in-our-heads.html

Give someone the quiz cold

The eight questions, shuffled, scored against the truth, against us, and against the national sample.

guess-the-parties.html

Cervas Election Study 202647 respondents, two courses

Democrats & leaners Republicans & leaners gap, in points
their Democrats their Republicans our Democrats & leaners (29) our Republicans & leaners (5) 2012 benchmark ± 95% CI 2024 ANES
guessed above the 2012 share guessed at or below it 2012 benchmark ± 95% CI 2024 ANES
True share, 2012 Same group, 2024 Our 47 students National sample, 2015

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